After more than a week of exchanging attacks with the United States over control of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s leadership faces a series of difficult decisions, with no option offering a clear path to victory.
The narrow waterway, through which a significant share of the world’s energy supplies passes, has become a major pressure point in the conflict. Tehran’s actions have increased tensions with Washington and raised concerns about global oil markets and regional stability.
Three options facing Tehran
Iran’s first option would be to accept many of Washington’s demands, including ensuring safe passage for commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, limiting its highly enriched uranium programme and accepting stronger international inspections.
In exchange, Tehran would likely seek the removal of US pressure on its economy, including sanctions relief and guarantees against further attacks.
However, such a move could carry a heavy political cost inside Iran. Hardliners could argue that military pressure from the United States forced Tehran into concessions and weakened the country’s position.
For years, Iran has presented its nuclear programme as a national right, while its influence in the region and military capabilities have been central parts of its security strategy.
Escalation carries greater risks
A second option would be to increase military pressure by expanding attacks on US forces, regional bases, commercial shipping and infrastructure in Gulf countries.
Such a strategy could raise the economic cost for Washington and its allies by disrupting energy supplies and increasing global oil prices.
However, escalation also carries serious dangers. A major attack causing large casualties or severe damage to Gulf infrastructure could push neighbouring countries further into the conflict and create a wider regional confrontation.
Maintaining pressure without full war
A third possibility is for Iran to continue applying pressure while avoiding a full-scale conflict.
This approach would allow Tehran to maintain influence over the Strait of Hormuz without triggering a larger military response.
Iran’s leadership has often relied on the idea that surviving a stronger opponent can itself be presented as a form of victory. But the economic consequences of prolonged conflict, including sanctions, inflation and damage to infrastructure, are increasing pressure inside the country.
The risk of losing influence over Hormuz
There is also a long-term dilemma for Iran. The more it uses the Strait of Hormuz as a tool of pressure, the more other countries may look for alternative energy routes and supply chains.
Iranian officials have acknowledged this challenge. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has said the importance of Hormuz comes from increasing shipping activity through the waterway, not reducing it.
A permanently unstable Strait could encourage global markets to find ways around Iran’s strategic advantage.
Uncertainty over who controls Iran’s decisions
The situation is further complicated by uncertainty over Iran’s internal decision-making process.
Under former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, major disputes between political leaders, religious institutions and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps were ultimately settled by the supreme leader.
Following his death and the rise of new leadership, questions remain about how power is now divided.
President Masoud Pezeshkian and diplomatic officials may favour negotiations to reduce economic pressure, while hardliners and conservative groups may oppose major compromises.
The role of the Revolutionary Guards is also significant. The organisation has major influence over Iran’s missile programme, regional alliances and strategy in the Strait of Hormuz.
The key question is not only what decision Iran will make, but who has the authority to make it.
Growing pressure among ordinary Iranians
While Iran’s leadership describes its strategy as resistance, many ordinary citizens are facing the consequences of the conflict.
Some Iranians have expressed frustration over renewed fighting, fearing further destruction and civilian casualties.
One woman who spoke to BBC Persian said she was deeply disappointed when fighting resumed after hopes that a temporary agreement would lead to negotiations.
Another woman in Tehran said the economic uncertainty had affected her life, including the closure of her workplace and rising living costs.
These experiences show the challenge facing Iran’s leadership: maintaining public support while asking citizens to endure prolonged economic hardship.
No easy victory for either side
The United States also faces difficult choices, including whether to expand military operations, continue economic pressure or pursue a negotiated settlement.
The confrontation could continue through cycles of attacks, negotiations and temporary ceasefires.
The central challenge for Iran is how long it can use the Strait of Hormuz as leverage without triggering a wider war, increasing domestic unrest or encouraging the world to reduce its dependence on the strategic waterway.
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