Egypt Reaffirms Its Opposition to Any Unilateral Moves on the Nile as Ethiopia Nears Completion of the GERD

 

Just days after Ethiopia announced that its Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) will be fully completed and inaugurated in September 2026, Egypt has once again made it clear that it will not accept any unilateral action concerning the waters of the Nile River, warning that such steps would violate established principles of international law.

Egypt’s Diplomatic Push

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Ahmed Abdel-Qaadi communicated Cairo’s firm stance in separate phone calls with his counterparts in Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Kenya, Djibouti, and Somalia. His message was direct: any attempt by Ethiopia to move forward with filling or operating the dam without a binding agreement undermines international norms governing shared water resources.

This diplomatic outreach reflects Cairo’s strategy of rallying African allies to support its position at a time when Ethiopia is accelerating the final stages of the GERD — a project that has been under construction for more than 14 years at a cost of $5 billion.

President Sisi’s Red Line

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has consistently described the Nile as a “lifeline” for his country. With a population of 105 million people, almost entirely dependent on the river for drinking water, agriculture, and industry, Sisi has framed the issue as existential.

“I assure the Egyptian people that we will never allow the waters upon which our 105 million citizens and 10 million expatriates depend to be touched,”
he declared recently, emphasizing that Egypt would take “all necessary measures” to safeguard its water security in line with international law.

Sisi has repeatedly warned that Cairo will not tolerate unilateral measures by Ethiopia and has sought to build regional consensus, including a joint declaration with Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni, that stresses the need for cooperation and mutual understanding.

Ethiopia Rejects “Colonial-Era” Agreements

Ethiopia, however, has firmly rejected Egypt’s position. Addis Ababa argues that the 1959 Nile Waters Agreement, signed between Egypt and Sudan during the colonial era, is outdated and unfair. Under that agreement:

• Egypt receives 55.5 billion cubic meters of water annually

• Sudan receives 18.5 billion cubic meters

Ethiopia — the source of over 80% of the Nile’s waters through the Blue Nile and other tributaries — was allocated no formal share. Ethiopian officials argue that the agreement ignored the rights of upstream nations and primarily benefited Egypt, then a key supplier of cotton to Britain.

Museveni Calls for a New Vision

Ugandan President Museveni, whose country contributes about 15% of the Nile’s flow, echoed calls for a new framework. Writing on his social media, Museveni stated:

“We must not only look at past rights but also consider the collective needs of all countries along the river. The Nile should serve us all — for electricity, irrigation, and drinking water.”

His remarks highlight growing regional sentiment that the Nile should be managed in a way that reflects contemporary realities rather than historical agreements.

Broader Implications

The GERD dispute has become one of Africa’s most high-profile diplomatic and geopolitical challenges. While Ethiopia views the dam as a symbol of sovereignty and a tool for economic development, Egypt sees it as a direct threat to its national security. Sudan, caught between the two, has voiced both support and concern at different stages, depending on how the dam’s operations may affect its own water and electricity needs.

Experts warn that without a binding agreement on how the dam is filled and managed, the dispute risks fueling long-term instability in the region. International mediators, including the African Union and the United States, have attempted to broker talks, but progress has been limited.

Conclusion

The coming year will be crucial. As Ethiopia prepares to inaugurate the GERD in 2026, Egypt is intensifying its diplomatic campaign to prevent any unilateral action it considers a violation of international law. The standoff underscores the urgent need for a comprehensive, cooperative, and legally binding framework that balances Ethiopia’s right to development with Egypt and Sudan’s right to water security.

Until then, the Nile — Africa’s longest river and a vital source of life for millions — remains at the heart of one of the continent’s most complex disputes.